It's hard to know where we are heading, but I'd like to offer my 2 cents worth.
(My apologies if you find this too long.)
At first, I was really put off by the software driven approach with the P2 and newer Volvos. I wondered what the point was. Having done some reading and thinking, I've realized that this approach allows for a lot less wiring throughout the car, and a lot more flexibility in design and function, and is not all bad. One example - the electronic throttle system is a marvel of simplicity - the throttle pedal with a position sensor, the infamous ETM istself, and the mass airflow sensor. Cruise control is handled by the ECM talking to the ETM - no cables, vacuum connection, etc. Another example - I don't hear about real electrical problems - burned out bulbs and some defective lock actuators, but not wiring issues. Is the simplicity already providing a benefit? (Having said this, I cannot comprehend why the replacement of parts requires software downloads. Why isn't this stuff "plug and play"? Even a new Windows operating system includes drivers for at least a hundred different printers!)
Electronic and digital technology are mysterious to most of us, but there are people out there who understand this stuff very well. The aftermarket is still catching up. ECMs and other modules are easy to repair for those who understand how, but we need aftermarket vendors who can repair and reprogram, and do for other parts what Vic Rocha is doing for ABS modules. (If Magneti Marelli designed the ETMs so that the potentiometers could be replaced for 50 bucks, nobody would be complaining.) Programming is trickier - this requires an in-depth knowledge of operating parameters - but perhaps aftermarket software packages will someday be available and we will dump our proprietary systems for an automotive version of Linux.
Of course, Volvo is not the only company with software issues - it was simply the pioneer with this approach back in 1999. However, the company needs to come clean and correct bugs in defective software without charging the customer. Microsoft (that big, evil computer company) provides Windows fixes for free without even confirming that you didn't pirate the software!
Despite my complaints, Volvo is improving software download and diagnostics access. VIDAS has been replaced by VIDA, a Windows-based online system that a dedicated Volvo independent can now afford, provided enough late model cars are being serviced. It requires a good computer in the shop, hardware to connect to the car, and up to $7000 per year for a subscription; a lot cheaper than the old satellite-based system. It seems to me that even very dedicated DIY'er could subscribe; it's about $100 for three days' worth. So it's not dealer-only, just more costly than the average owner or small shop can afford.
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