Good call. I agree, the wire is likely broken in the rubber bellows-like conduit between A-pillar and door, where it bends each time the door is opened.
Interesting to me, because I had the same symptoms pop up on Mrs. B's wagon a couple weeks ago when we got some of your cold air down here. The locks would operate to lock the doors but not to unlock. Neither key switch nor lock knob would operate, so I knew not to take the door panel apart.
Listening closely, however, I could hear the "unlock relay" operating. A click behind the center vents proved I did not have the wire broken in the door jamb.
So next I had to devise a plan to find this trouble with the least amount of work, because, frankly it was very chilly out and door locks worked OK manually. The lock/unlock relay pair operates by putting battery voltage on the actuator motors, reversing the voltage to change direction.
Actually, both relays are needed for both directions; the one that doesn't click supplies the ground through its normally closed 87a contact. I wanted to avoid opening the center console panel, because the relays are crammed in tight along with a lot of other wiring -- difficult to reach without causing at least two other problems in the process. Cold makes it all the worse.
Next move was to locate the yellow and blue actuator wires as easily as possible. They are joined in connectors along their paths, where a test light can be used to find out if battery or ground is missing, when the actuators fail to move. One connector, to feed the passenger door is just below the glove box, under the side window defroster vent. Easy to reach above the felt knee pad. Another easy to reach connector, that feeds the trunk or tailgage actuator, is located behind the driver's right kickpanel, near the carpet.
Well, I went below the glovebox (to the connector labeled "R" on the drawing) with a test light, and found the ground path to be missing, indicating a problem with the lock relay's normally closed contact, or some connection between there and ground. No other choice now, but to go behind the center console panel.
I was now enthusiastic to find the cause, because I know those Bosch metal-can relays are very reliable, and almost never the reason for a trouble unless water got in them. And water never gets in them if someone hasn't turned them upside down.
Upon opening the the console, I saw at once, one of the relays not clipped to the rail above, but hanging down, and sporting the splices of my early keyless entry installation - about 10 years ago.
This was the first of about 7 keyless installs, done before I had a wiring diagram and when I thought I would have to go directly to those hard-to-reach relays to access the wiring. Since then, our keyless systems are all wired in at the three-pin (red/green/black) plug you mention by the drivers knee, and actuator wiring spliced at the two-pin (blue/yellow) plug behind the right kickpanel.
Seeing my work at the relays clued me in I was chasing a self-made problem in all likelihood, and nothing that would be of any benefit to other Volvo owners. To make matters worse, the unlock function began to work again for just having opened the panel and touched things. Been OK both with the button and key fob since that day, so I will gladly wait until the problem returns, and hope it will be warmer then.
Just to help make it easier for the OP's keyless install, here is the wiring diagram I could have used when I did my first.


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Art Benstein near Baltimore
Drive carefully. It's not only cars that can be recalled by their maker.
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